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Soonsal Briefing · Card News · 2026.03.18
Oil Rises.
Oil Dies Faster.
$103 oil per barrel $78 battery per MWh
Soonsal Soonsal
Oil: 30% Efficient
Batteries: 80%
OIL 30% efficiency 70% lost as heat BATTERY 80% efficiency 20% lost in cycle
Batteries deliver 80%.
Adjust for efficiency — batteries already win
Soonsal Soonsal
Hormuz Is Blocked
TANKERS THROUGH HORMUZ / DAY 130+ before war → <5 after war 20% of global oil passes through this strait IEA: "largest supply disruption in history"
Oil went from $67 to $103
in three weeks
Soonsal Soonsal
Why Does Expensive
Oil Kill Oil?
THE MATH 1 barrel of oil = ~1.6 MWh of energy But only 30% becomes electricity So 1 barrel = 0.48 MWh of usable power $103 / 0.48 MWh = $215 per usable MWh Battery: $78 per MWh at 80% = $98
Oil is 2.2x more expensive
than batteries for usable energy
Soonsal Soonsal
Batteries Keep
Getting Cheaper
4-HOUR GRID BATTERY COST ($/MWh) $107 2024 $78 2025 ↓27% EV cell costs: $40/kWh in China Overcapacity from EV boom flooding grid storage
All-time low. And still falling
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Oil Goes Up.
EVs Win Faster.
2025 GLOBAL EV SALES 20.7M 1 in 4 new cars sold is electric Gas car fuel cost $4.20/gal EV charging cost ~50% less
Chinese EV SUVs start at $27K.
Charging costs half of gas
Soonsal Soonsal
Solar + Battery
Beats New Gas Plants
COST TO GENERATE ELECTRICITY ($/MWh) Solar + Battery $57 per MWh New Gas Plant $73 per MWh It no longer makes financial sense to build gas
Even without subsidies,
renewables win on pure cost
Soonsal Soonsal
IEA Dumps Record
400M Barrels
THE IRONY IEA is releasing the painkiller 400M barrels — largest strategic release ever ↓ Batteries are writing the prescription Every $1 oil rises, $1 flows into batteries + EVs
The war was meant to secure oil.
It's accelerating oil's replacement
Soonsal Soonsal
The Paradox
in One Chart
OIL PRICE vs BATTERY COMPETITIVENESS Oil $ Battery We passed the crossover point Higher oil = faster transition. Permanently. 2023 2026
Oil's worst enemy isn't policy.
It's a $78 battery.
Soonsal Soonsal
"The Stone Age didn't end because
we ran out of stones."
— Ahmed Zaki Yamani
Former Saudi Oil Minister
The war started over oil.
Oil might not survive it.
Soonsal Soonsal