🎲 예측시장

본인 피셜 “By his own admission, he is 'not a math guy.'”

예측시장의 기본 단위 “An event contract on 'France wins World Cup' at 35 cents means the market assigns a 35% probability — and if France actually wins, that contract pays out $1.”

플랫폼 비즈니스의 본질 “With $50 billion in monthly volume, the house always wins — Kalshi and Polymarket collect fees win or lose, while the real bet is on whether regulators let the house stay open.”

메타 Arena의 철학 “The social conversation is the payoff.”

저커버그의 DNA “Building a prediction market app is a classic fast-follow move by Zuckerberg.”

Polymarket 가짜 트레이더 논란의 핵심 “Reports indicate Polymarket has some fake traders engaging in wash trading, inflating volumes that the market relies on for price discovery.”

이벤트 결과에 따라 정산되는 베팅 계약 “Americans traded $34 billion in event contracts on offshore prediction markets, beyond the reach of US regulators.”

밸리데이터가 직접 예측시장 결과를 정산하는 하이퍼리퀴드 업그레이드 “The HIP-4 upgrade enables validator-settled prediction markets on Hyperliquid, removing oracle dependency and directly competing with Polymarket and Kalshi.”

미국 정부 관계자의 내부정보 이용 거래를 금지하는 법 “The STOCK Act bars government officials from trading stocks on nonpublic info, but prediction markets like Polymarket currently fall outside its scope.”

특정 사건의 결과에 베팅하는 계약 “Minnesota just made event contracts a felony — but the CFTC says they're federally regulated derivatives, not gambling.”

이름 바꿔도 본질은 안 바뀐다 “'Gambling by another name is still gambling' — New York's AG just drew a line that could reshape how prediction markets operate across the US.”

예측시장의 기본 단위 “Citadel Securities is exploring event contract trading as prediction markets scale to multi-billion dollar volumes.”

스킨 인 더 게임 “Prediction markets prove that the crowd's money is more accurate than expert opinion — people bet differently when real dollars are at stake.”

게이트웨이 전략의 핵심 — 쉬운 걸로 들어와서 어려운 걸로 확장 “'Entry point, not the endgame' — Bernstein sees prediction markets expanding from sports to politics, economics, and corporate events.”

Polymarket의 모든 베팅이 USDC로 온체인 정산됨. 이 데이터가 실시간 공개되기 때문에 투명성은 높지만, 동시에 이스라엘 공군 사건처럼 의심 거래를 추적하기도 쉬운 양날의 검 “Polymarket's on-chain settlement makes every trade transparent — which is exactly how investigators traced the insider bets.”