칼시(Kalshi) 타임라인

미래 사건의 결과에 베팅하는 시장 “France banned prediction market Polymarket, citing addictive mechanics and the absence of safeguards — a stance that 36 jurisdictions now share.”

예측시장의 기본 단위 “An event contract on 'France wins World Cup' at 35 cents means the market assigns a 35% probability — and if France actually wins, that contract pays out $1.”

플랫폼 비즈니스의 본질 “With $50 billion in monthly volume, the house always wins — Kalshi and Polymarket collect fees win or lose, while the real bet is on whether regulators let the house stay open.”

예측시장의 월가화 “Polymarket's application for margin trading would transform prediction markets from a niche betting venue into a full-fledged financial instrument, complete with leverage, liquidation risk, and margin calls.”

예측시장의 새로운 규제 리스크 “The Google employee's prosecution for event contract insider trading on Polymarket marked the first time the CFTC applied traditional insider trading principles to a crypto-native prediction market.”

특정 사건의 결과에 돈을 거는 예측시장 파생 상품 “Goldman Sachs has banned employees from trading on event contracts related to specific companies, elections, or financial market performance.”

메타 Arena의 철학 “The social conversation is the payoff.”

저커버그의 DNA “Building a prediction market app is a classic fast-follow move by Zuckerberg.”

메타의 공식 전략 “Meta's fast follower playbook — from Stories to Reels to Arena — has proven that being first matters less than being Meta.”

실리콘밸리 카피캣 전략의 원조 발언 “Don't be too proud to copy.”

Polymarket 가짜 트레이더 논란의 핵심 “Reports indicate Polymarket has some fake traders engaging in wash trading, inflating volumes that the market relies on for price discovery.”

이벤트 결과에 따라 정산되는 베팅 계약 “Americans traded $34 billion in event contracts on offshore prediction markets, beyond the reach of US regulators.”

밸리데이터가 직접 예측시장 결과를 정산하는 하이퍼리퀴드 업그레이드 “The HIP-4 upgrade enables validator-settled prediction markets on Hyperliquid, removing oracle dependency and directly competing with Polymarket and Kalshi.”

이벤트 결과에 돈을 거는 플랫폼 — 금융상품 vs 도박 논쟁 중 “Trump declared it 'critically important' that the CFTC maintain exclusive authority over prediction markets, calling them a 'new form of Financial Market.'”

미국 정부 관계자의 내부정보 이용 거래를 금지하는 법 “The STOCK Act bars government officials from trading stocks on nonpublic info, but prediction markets like Polymarket currently fall outside its scope.”

실물 없이 가격 추종하는 온체인 무기한 선물 “Hyperliquid's synthetic perp for SpaceX hit $33M in volume on day one — proving that on-chain markets can create liquidity for any asset, even pre-IPO shares.”

“규제 밖에서 돌아가는 비공식 주식 거래 시장”

AI 시대 첫 본격 비용 절감 사이클이 크립토 거래소에서 먼저 터지는 중 “We are rebuilding Coinbase as an intelligence, with humans around the edge aligning it. — Brian Armstrong.”

“탈중앙”

신원 위장 매수 — 합법과 위법의 경계 “World Liberty alleges that Sun made straw purchases by using third parties to buy WLFI tokens to conceal his identity.”

“진심 아닌 쇼”

“수단·방법 안 가리는 공세”

ETF 안에 들어있는 건 결국 이것 “Roundhill's ETFs use swaps tied to binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges.”

사건에 돈을 거는 계약 — 이제 금융상품 취급 “The CFTC defined prediction market bets as event contracts — a legal move that could extend insider trading laws to virtually any crypto-based wager.”

이름 바꿔도 본질은 안 바뀐다 “'Gambling by another name is still gambling' — New York's AG just drew a line that could reshape how prediction markets operate across the US.”

예측시장의 기본 단위 “Citadel Securities is exploring event contract trading as prediction markets scale to multi-billion dollar volumes.”

스킨 인 더 게임 “Prediction markets prove that the crowd's money is more accurate than expert opinion — people bet differently when real dollars are at stake.”

Polymarket의 모든 베팅이 USDC로 온체인 정산됨. 이 데이터가 실시간 공개되기 때문에 투명성은 높지만, 동시에 이스라엘 공군 사건처럼 의심 거래를 추적하기도 쉬운 양날의 검 “Polymarket's on-chain settlement makes every trade transparent — which is exactly how investigators traced the insider bets.”

엔비디아 1위 유지 시 7% 쿠폰, 아니면 0% — 어느 쪽이든 원금은 돌려받는 구조. 직접 베팅보다 리스크는 낮지만 기대수익도 깎인 것 “The first structured note tied to a prediction market offers 7% if Nvidia stays No.1 — with principal protected either way.”

예측시장에서 거래되는 상품의 공식 명칭. “비트코인이 3월에 $80K를 넘을까?”

기존 결제 시스템 (SWIFT, 카드 네트워크 등)을 “레일”

미 상원이 금지법을 통과시킨 바로 그것. 중국의 e-CNY가 대표적. 민간 스테이블코인 (USDT, USDC)과 다른 점은 발행 주체가 “정부”